Joshua Gordon, PhD
Introduction
In this post, I aim to build upon the analysis presented in my prior entry, where I explored the projected number of qualification slots by age group for 2024 events and developed a ratio of slots to participants based on historical race completion rates. For those interested, you can find my earlier discussion: How to Qualify for Kona in 2024 | Precise Multisport. This entry expands upon the methodology previously outlined, incorporating a key modification: the use of historical data spanning the past eight years to examine the qualifying times, informed by the minimum, maximum, and average number of slots available.
Methodology:
To estimate the number of Kona slots available per age group, I began by calculating the total slot allocation for each event, factoring in the historical participation rates within each age group and ensuring a minimum of one slot per age group. This initial step allowed me to project the distribution of Kona slots across different age categories.
Following the estimation of slots per age group, I analyzed the historical performance data from each race location to determine the finishing times required to fall within the estimated slot range. This involved analyzing the times needed to secure a finish between the minimum and maximum projected slot allocations, in addition to examining the average finishing times of participants within this bracket.
Case Study: IM Texas in the Male 35-39 Age Group
Consider the case of IM Texas for the male 35-39 category as an illustrative example. My previous analysis estimates that there will likely be between 7 and 8 slots available for this age group at the 2024 IM Texas event.
Table: 7th and 8th Place Finishing Times IMTX
This table below presents the historical finishing times for the 7th and 8th positions at IMTX.
| Division Place | Year | Finish Time | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2018 | 08:44:03 | 08:44:03 | 08:44:03 |
| 7 | 2016 | 08:45:35 | 08:45:35 | 08:45:35 |
| 7 | 2023 | 09:10:57 | 09:10:57 | 09:10:57 |
| 7 | 2017 | 09:16:59 | 09:16:59 | 09:16:59 |
| 7 | 2019 | 09:25:58 | 09:25:58 | 09:25:58 |
| 7 | 2022 | 09:54:35 | 09:54:35 | 09:54:35 |
| 8 | 2016 | 08:45:56 | 08:45:56 | 08:45:56 |
| 8 | 2018 | 08:46:01 | 08:46:01 | 08:46:01 |
| 8 | 2023 | 09:15:00 | 09:15:00 | 09:15:00 |
| 8 | 2017 | 09:17:02 | 09:17:02 | 09:17:02 |
| 8 | 2019 | 09:29:01 | 09:29:01 | 09:29:01 |
| 8 | 2022 | 09:55:12 | 09:55:12 | 09:55:12 |
Table: Male 35-39 Age Group Finishing Times
The plot below uses a horizontal line to indicate the range of estimated finishing times necessary for Kona qualification. Focusing in on IMTX we can see the following:
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The left end of the line, at 8:44, signifies the fastest estimated time required to qualify.
-
The right end, at 9:55, marks the slowest time within the qualification threshold.
-
The black dot, located at 9:13, represents the average qualifying time across the historical data range you've analyzed.
The table is the numeric data behind the plot, showing the estimated min, max and most likely time needed to qualify.
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M35 | Australia | 08:56:15 | 09:19:58 | 09:39:33 |
| M35 | Austria | 08:48:40 | 09:06:18 | 09:18:10 |
| M35 | Brazil | 08:47:30 | 08:57:56 | 09:20:44 |
| M35 | Cairns | 09:24:42 | 09:37:13 | 09:58:07 |
| M35 | Copenhagen | 08:39:15 | 08:53:24 | 09:05:37 |
| M35 | France | 09:25:58 | 09:40:34 | 10:01:36 |
| M35 | Frankfurt | 08:56:56 | 09:18:07 | 09:39:20 |
| M35 | Hamburg | 08:34:52 | 08:54:00 | 09:13:26 |
| M35 | Kalmar | 08:50:22 | 09:03:51 | 09:23:05 |
| M35 | Lake-Placid | 09:28:36 | 09:46:40 | 09:55:42 |
| M35 | Lanzarote | 09:16:52 | 09:39:40 | 10:09:13 |
| M35 | New-Zealand | 09:18:29 | 09:37:59 | 10:08:17 |
| M35 | Philippines | 09:42:56 | 10:50:57 | 12:32:30 |
| M35 | South-Africa | 08:56:59 | 09:13:20 | 09:27:16 |
| M35 | Switzerland | 08:58:30 | 09:21:04 | 09:55:50 |
| M35 | Texas | 08:44:03 | 09:13:51 | 09:55:12 |
| M35 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 08:50:42 | 08:53:17 | 08:58:09 |
Projected Kona Qualifying Times for 2024: An Age Group Breakdown
In the following graphs, we present an analysis of projected finishing times required for qualifying for the 2024 Kona Ironman World Championship, segmented by age group and across various qualifying events.
M18
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M18 | Australia | 09:19:18 | 09:57:20 | 10:23:42 |
| M18 | Austria | 09:12:53 | 09:35:23 | 10:15:26 |
| M18 | Brazil | 08:51:06 | 09:43:45 | 11:30:22 |
| M18 | Cairns | 09:16:28 | 09:58:26 | 10:54:40 |
| M18 | Copenhagen | 08:44:29 | 09:03:59 | 09:26:29 |
| M18 | France | 09:18:46 | 09:49:12 | 10:30:12 |
| M18 | Frankfurt | 08:35:21 | 09:18:20 | 10:17:04 |
| M18 | Hamburg | 08:31:55 | 09:14:12 | 09:50:31 |
| M18 | Kalmar | 08:37:35 | 09:22:06 | 09:57:14 |
| M18 | Lake-Placid | 09:15:34 | 10:04:32 | 11:10:39 |
| M18 | Lanzarote | 09:50:16 | 10:47:42 | 12:23:40 |
| M18 | New-Zealand | 09:19:40 | 10:04:10 | 10:26:52 |
| M18 | Philippines | 10:03:23 | 12:23:22 | 16:30:39 |
| M18 | South-Africa | 09:03:15 | 09:40:36 | 10:43:33 |
| M18 | Switzerland | 09:13:37 | 09:51:50 | 10:35:15 |
| M18 | Texas | 08:35:59 | 09:28:41 | 10:25:56 |
| M18 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 09:29:51 | 10:04:30 | 10:43:52 |
M25
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M25 | Australia | 08:46:40 | 09:11:57 | 09:36:20 |
| M25 | Austria | 08:42:13 | 08:59:52 | 09:14:49 |
| M25 | Brazil | 08:41:21 | 09:01:29 | 09:20:16 |
| M25 | Cairns | 09:13:56 | 09:38:21 | 10:03:40 |
| M25 | Copenhagen | 08:34:35 | 08:53:10 | 09:09:50 |
| M25 | France | 09:15:40 | 09:32:14 | 10:01:56 |
| M25 | Frankfurt | 08:46:58 | 09:04:21 | 09:34:38 |
| M25 | Hamburg | 08:36:52 | 08:52:02 | 09:23:10 |
| M25 | Kalmar | 08:42:51 | 08:59:50 | 09:23:54 |
| M25 | Lake-Placid | 09:26:19 | 09:42:15 | 09:57:09 |
| M25 | Lanzarote | 08:43:59 | 09:40:49 | 10:25:39 |
| M25 | New-Zealand | 08:59:24 | 09:33:13 | 10:04:59 |
| M25 | Philippines | 10:01:37 | 11:56:10 | 14:13:15 |
| M25 | South-Africa | 09:03:40 | 09:23:36 | 09:55:22 |
| M25 | Switzerland | 08:58:00 | 09:17:48 | 09:38:45 |
| M25 | Texas | 08:09:45 | 09:15:29 | 09:49:49 |
| M25 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 08:42:00 | 09:09:44 | 09:35:10 |
M30
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M30 | Australia | 09:09:38 | 09:21:45 | 09:32:02 |
| M30 | Austria | 08:39:54 | 09:02:04 | 09:13:35 |
| M30 | Brazil | 08:55:10 | 09:05:06 | 09:16:02 |
| M30 | Cairns | 09:11:05 | 09:24:57 | 09:41:04 |
| M30 | Copenhagen | 08:28:11 | 08:44:58 | 09:00:51 |
| M30 | France | 09:10:07 | 09:35:35 | 10:06:24 |
| M30 | Frankfurt | 08:56:22 | 09:11:05 | 09:34:57 |
| M30 | Hamburg | 08:29:33 | 08:46:23 | 09:10:04 |
| M30 | Kalmar | 08:46:04 | 09:01:10 | 09:08:00 |
| M30 | Lake-Placid | 09:19:27 | 09:40:15 | 09:58:55 |
| M30 | Lanzarote | 09:10:52 | 09:39:31 | 10:10:21 |
| M30 | New-Zealand | 09:08:06 | 09:22:37 | 09:39:06 |
| M30 | Philippines | 09:46:18 | 10:34:54 | 11:23:03 |
| M30 | South-Africa | 09:11:12 | 09:20:56 | 09:28:17 |
| M30 | Switzerland | 09:03:50 | 09:16:48 | 09:36:24 |
| M30 | Texas | 08:24:55 | 09:05:03 | 09:30:41 |
| M30 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 08:27:33 | 08:44:19 | 08:57:52 |
M35
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M35 | Australia | 08:56:15 | 09:19:58 | 09:39:33 |
| M35 | Austria | 08:48:40 | 09:06:18 | 09:18:10 |
| M35 | Brazil | 08:47:30 | 08:57:56 | 09:20:44 |
| M35 | Cairns | 09:24:42 | 09:37:13 | 09:58:07 |
| M35 | Copenhagen | 08:39:15 | 08:53:24 | 09:05:37 |
| M35 | France | 09:25:58 | 09:40:34 | 10:01:36 |
| M35 | Frankfurt | 08:56:56 | 09:18:07 | 09:39:20 |
| M35 | Hamburg | 08:34:52 | 08:54:00 | 09:13:26 |
| M35 | Kalmar | 08:50:22 | 09:03:51 | 09:23:05 |
| M35 | Lake-Placid | 09:28:36 | 09:46:40 | 09:55:42 |
| M35 | Lanzarote | 09:16:52 | 09:39:40 | 10:09:13 |
| M35 | New-Zealand | 09:18:29 | 09:37:59 | 10:08:17 |
| M35 | Philippines | 09:42:56 | 10:50:57 | 12:32:30 |
| M35 | South-Africa | 08:56:59 | 09:13:20 | 09:27:16 |
| M35 | Switzerland | 08:58:30 | 09:21:04 | 09:55:50 |
| M35 | Texas | 08:44:03 | 09:13:51 | 09:55:12 |
| M35 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 08:50:42 | 08:53:17 | 08:58:09 |
M40
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M40 | Australia | 09:22:56 | 09:39:56 | 10:04:48 |
| M40 | Austria | 09:04:24 | 09:22:17 | 09:48:44 |
| M40 | Brazil | 08:57:31 | 09:10:34 | 09:23:54 |
| M40 | Cairns | 09:31:17 | 09:46:07 | 10:02:56 |
| M40 | Copenhagen | 08:41:58 | 08:56:42 | 09:08:36 |
| M40 | France | 09:24:49 | 09:50:36 | 10:17:20 |
| M40 | Frankfurt | 09:13:47 | 09:32:09 | 10:06:01 |
| M40 | Hamburg | 08:53:36 | 09:04:38 | 09:20:36 |
| M40 | Kalmar | 08:50:12 | 09:13:29 | 09:35:26 |
| M40 | Lake-Placid | 09:41:35 | 10:02:41 | 10:27:03 |
| M40 | Lanzarote | 09:14:30 | 09:54:56 | 10:29:02 |
| M40 | New-Zealand | 09:14:33 | 09:39:46 | 10:07:14 |
| M40 | Philippines | 11:17:44 | 11:44:38 | 12:21:36 |
| M40 | South-Africa | 09:01:24 | 09:21:48 | 09:34:06 |
| M40 | Switzerland | 09:26:16 | 09:36:05 | 09:42:25 |
| M40 | Texas | 08:42:36 | 09:22:02 | 10:15:57 |
| M40 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 08:53:45 | 08:58:19 | 09:01:39 |
M45
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M45 | Australia | 09:26:06 | 09:53:07 | 10:08:33 |
| M45 | Austria | 09:18:18 | 09:35:09 | 09:51:55 |
| M45 | Brazil | 08:59:13 | 09:18:16 | 09:32:05 |
| M45 | Cairns | 09:35:51 | 09:53:35 | 10:16:41 |
| M45 | Copenhagen | 08:54:12 | 09:07:59 | 09:28:37 |
| M45 | France | 09:35:09 | 10:02:17 | 10:38:06 |
| M45 | Frankfurt | 09:23:56 | 09:43:15 | 10:05:48 |
| M45 | Hamburg | 09:00:06 | 09:12:03 | 09:24:43 |
| M45 | Kalmar | 09:17:05 | 09:24:53 | 09:33:25 |
| M45 | Lake-Placid | 09:53:43 | 10:06:59 | 10:20:31 |
| M45 | Lanzarote | 10:07:08 | 10:24:49 | 10:40:46 |
| M45 | New-Zealand | 09:31:32 | 09:56:31 | 10:42:41 |
| M45 | Philippines | 11:17:36 | 11:44:29 | 12:17:50 |
| M45 | South-Africa | 09:27:02 | 09:33:25 | 09:47:28 |
| M45 | Switzerland | 09:29:44 | 09:47:25 | 10:27:47 |
| M45 | Texas | 08:59:30 | 09:45:28 | 11:01:50 |
| M45 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 09:14:07 | 09:22:17 | 09:29:41 |
M50
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M50 | Australia | 09:55:17 | 10:11:03 | 10:29:34 |
| M50 | Austria | 09:31:42 | 09:46:14 | 10:06:27 |
| M50 | Brazil | 09:07:05 | 09:35:29 | 10:15:48 |
| M50 | Cairns | 09:52:39 | 10:08:18 | 10:26:03 |
| M50 | Copenhagen | 09:15:13 | 09:36:39 | 09:52:24 |
| M50 | France | 09:51:03 | 10:17:04 | 10:50:17 |
| M50 | Frankfurt | 09:31:23 | 09:50:08 | 10:30:58 |
| M50 | Hamburg | 09:13:37 | 09:25:23 | 09:41:59 |
| M50 | Kalmar | 09:28:17 | 09:43:36 | 09:55:51 |
| M50 | Lake-Placid | 10:03:11 | 10:21:49 | 10:47:23 |
| M50 | Lanzarote | 10:14:05 | 10:39:58 | 11:15:30 |
| M50 | New-Zealand | 09:53:24 | 10:17:50 | 10:49:14 |
| M50 | Philippines | 11:07:13 | 11:21:42 | 11:40:11 |
| M50 | South-Africa | 09:46:56 | 10:00:38 | 10:16:50 |
| M50 | Switzerland | 09:50:38 | 10:02:03 | 10:18:18 |
| M50 | Texas | 09:13:12 | 09:50:27 | 10:35:39 |
| M50 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 09:31:04 | 09:39:56 | 09:48:05 |
M55
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M55 | Australia | 10:23:18 | 10:32:45 | 10:49:49 |
| M55 | Austria | 09:57:49 | 10:21:58 | 10:42:27 |
| M55 | Brazil | 09:27:45 | 10:05:00 | 10:34:54 |
| M55 | Cairns | 10:15:03 | 10:35:07 | 10:54:22 |
| M55 | Copenhagen | 09:23:39 | 09:57:48 | 10:23:31 |
| M55 | France | 09:51:16 | 10:24:02 | 11:20:37 |
| M55 | Frankfurt | 09:51:15 | 10:12:06 | 10:45:46 |
| M55 | Hamburg | 09:31:32 | 09:50:27 | 10:12:51 |
| M55 | Kalmar | 09:33:05 | 10:04:14 | 10:28:53 |
| M55 | Lake-Placid | 10:24:10 | 10:54:34 | 11:29:59 |
| M55 | Lanzarote | 10:29:11 | 10:51:41 | 11:16:36 |
| M55 | New-Zealand | 10:10:24 | 10:45:55 | 11:08:51 |
| M55 | Philippines | 11:44:39 | 12:08:56 | 12:45:48 |
| M55 | South-Africa | 10:09:02 | 10:23:22 | 10:33:45 |
| M55 | Switzerland | 09:53:50 | 10:26:30 | 11:09:09 |
| M55 | Texas | 09:38:47 | 10:30:44 | 11:28:10 |
| M55 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 09:29:57 | 09:51:16 | 10:05:55 |
M60
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M60 | Australia | 10:30:10 | 11:11:22 | 12:01:25 |
| M60 | Austria | 10:19:27 | 10:52:09 | 11:31:54 |
| M60 | Brazil | 10:07:58 | 10:45:17 | 11:25:06 |
| M60 | Cairns | 10:12:20 | 11:00:33 | 11:33:58 |
| M60 | Copenhagen | 10:17:05 | 10:51:07 | 12:08:16 |
| M60 | France | 09:56:01 | 11:03:55 | 12:17:36 |
| M60 | Frankfurt | 09:59:07 | 10:34:54 | 11:54:32 |
| M60 | Hamburg | 09:53:36 | 10:17:28 | 10:57:53 |
| M60 | Kalmar | 10:08:39 | 10:46:46 | 12:23:45 |
| M60 | Lake-Placid | 09:56:44 | 11:21:18 | 12:02:02 |
| M60 | Lanzarote | 11:10:30 | 11:41:18 | 12:17:47 |
| M60 | New-Zealand | 10:04:33 | 11:10:46 | 12:29:26 |
| M60 | Philippines | 12:31:17 | 13:13:46 | 13:51:22 |
| M60 | South-Africa | 10:44:31 | 11:05:00 | 11:44:16 |
| M60 | Switzerland | 10:45:48 | 11:22:52 | 12:39:59 |
| M60 | Texas | 10:06:08 | 10:42:06 | 11:46:43 |
| M60 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 10:17:24 | 10:39:28 | 11:09:22 |
M65
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M65 | Australia | 11:33:22 | 12:32:21 | 14:17:52 |
| M65 | Austria | 11:12:51 | 12:13:20 | 13:38:43 |
| M65 | Brazil | 11:10:51 | 11:55:52 | 13:47:00 |
| M65 | Cairns | 11:19:16 | 12:06:05 | 13:04:03 |
| M65 | Copenhagen | 10:11:27 | 12:08:16 | 13:52:33 |
| M65 | France | 10:47:41 | 11:38:00 | 12:53:34 |
| M65 | Frankfurt | 10:51:36 | 11:57:21 | 13:06:13 |
| M65 | Hamburg | 11:10:10 | 11:29:33 | 12:01:53 |
| M65 | Kalmar | 11:07:46 | 12:09:40 | 13:01:43 |
| M65 | Lake-Placid | 11:44:53 | 12:51:45 | 14:08:34 |
| M65 | Lanzarote | 11:58:02 | 13:02:27 | 14:02:32 |
| M65 | New-Zealand | 11:40:55 | 12:50:44 | 16:18:37 |
| M65 | Philippines | 13:03:22 | 14:38:43 | 16:24:19 |
| M65 | South-Africa | 11:24:19 | 12:38:58 | 14:01:31 |
| M65 | Switzerland | 11:18:35 | 12:34:45 | 13:58:18 |
| M65 | Texas | 10:04:45 | 11:25:40 | 12:36:25 |
| M65 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 11:11:32 | 12:16:03 | 13:36:52 |
M70
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M70 | Australia | 12:07:17 | 14:27:44 | 16:34:48 |
| M70 | Austria | 12:00:15 | 14:48:04 | 16:23:45 |
| M70 | Brazil | 11:49:40 | 13:26:06 | 14:40:44 |
| M70 | Cairns | 12:20:28 | 13:44:27 | 14:54:40 |
| M70 | Copenhagen | 12:48:23 | 13:46:36 | 15:32:04 |
| M70 | France | 11:32:28 | 13:35:51 | 14:23:20 |
| M70 | Frankfurt | 11:27:12 | 12:52:33 | 13:52:18 |
| M70 | Hamburg | 13:27:47 | 14:21:48 | 15:07:44 |
| M70 | Kalmar | 12:29:05 | 13:43:50 | 15:36:17 |
| M70 | Lake-Placid | 12:52:02 | 14:08:04 | 15:49:32 |
| M70 | Lanzarote | 12:18:25 | 14:13:30 | 16:53:49 |
| M70 | New-Zealand | 12:30:55 | 14:22:30 | 16:03:45 |
| M70 | Philippines | 14:34:38 | 14:49:17 | 15:03:56 |
| M70 | South-Africa | 12:50:18 | 13:58:38 | 16:30:17 |
| M70 | Switzerland | 12:30:41 | 13:56:59 | 15:22:43 |
| M70 | Texas | 11:20:07 | 13:14:53 | 15:39:40 |
| M70 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 14:07:19 | 14:07:19 | 14:07:19 |
M75
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M75 | Australia | 15:27:46 | 15:43:32 | 16:01:12 |
| M75 | Austria | 14:44:03 | 15:51:05 | 16:42:16 |
| M75 | Brazil | 13:15:12 | 13:15:12 | 13:15:12 |
| M75 | Cairns | 14:32:32 | 15:40:45 | 16:02:48 |
| M75 | France | 15:22:53 | 15:22:53 | 15:22:53 |
| M75 | Frankfurt | 13:22:48 | 13:22:48 | 13:22:48 |
| M75 | Hamburg | 14:25:06 | 14:25:06 | 14:25:06 |
| M75 | Kalmar | 15:44:57 | 15:44:57 | 15:44:57 |
| M75 | Lake-Placid | 14:06:52 | 15:33:20 | 16:53:57 |
| M75 | New-Zealand | 14:20:43 | 15:06:59 | 15:59:04 |
| M75 | Texas | 14:16:19 | 15:21:11 | 16:03:48 |
| M75 | Vitoria-Gasteiz | 15:23:29 | 15:23:29 | 15:23:29 |
M80
| Age Group | Event Name | Min Time Needed | Average Time Needed | Max Time Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M80 | Cairns | 16:24:39 | 16:24:39 | 16:24:39 |
| M80 | Lake-Placid | 16:21:14 | 16:21:14 | 16:21:14 |
| M80 | New-Zealand | 15:36:45 | 16:24:25 | 16:52:08 |
| M80 | Texas | 16:43:09 | 16:43:09 | 16:43:09 |