Joshua Gordon, PhD
If you're looking to set a personal best in the half or full Ironman, you're not alone. Tons of athletes just like you, all around the world have the same goal. But what's the best way to go about it? In this blog, I'll analyze over 1 million finish times from the past 8 years to identify locations that are best for you to (1) put up a personal best (2) reach a certain time goal such as sub 12 hours in an Ironman.
Other articles exist on this topic:
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Triathlete.com: https://www.triathlete.com/culture/news/data-dive-the-fastest-ironman-and-70-3-swim-courses/
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ironmanhacks.com: https://ironmanhacks.com/10-fastest-full-distance-courses/
However, in this blog, I aim to offer further insights, recognizing that individuals' goals are both diverse and complex. I will:
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Re-present similar finishing information to the above articles that I calculated myself based on the latest available data.
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Construct Personal Best Estimates by identifying athletes who have raced multiple events (e.g. 2x 140.6s in the 8 year span) and then quantify the likelihood (or probability) that a specific race location will lead to personal best time. I will combine average times with Personal Best Estimates in an intuitive visualization that will allow you to choose a race that can optimize both your time goal and your desire for a personal best.
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Calculate the proportion of athletes at each race that reach a particular time goal (e.g. sub 12 hours in a 140.6)
Data Overview
The dataset analyzed was collected using a custom-built Python scraper designed to retrieve race results. It encompasses finish times from all Ironman events that took place from 2016 through 2024.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Athletes | 682,698 |
| Total Events | 811 |
| Ironman Events | 297 |
| Ironman 70.3 Events | 514 |
| Athletes with ≥ 2 Full Iron Distance Races | 188,435 |
| Years Analyzed | 2015 to 2024 |
The Analysis: Benchmarking Ironman Course Times
One frequently asked question revolves around the average completion time for each Ironman race. In the following table, you'll find a comprehensive summary that not only presents the average finish time for each event but also details the standard deviation to illustrate the range of outcomes. This data is organized from the fastest to the slowest courses, providing a clear perspective on which events might suit your goals best.
For athletes focused on optimizing specific segments of the race—like achieving a target bike split—the table below this also breaks down average times for the Swim, Bike, and Run portions individually. This detailed analysis allows you to pinpoint which courses offer the best chance for you to excel in the areas you're targeting.
| Race | Average Time | Standard Deviation Time |
|---|---|---|
| Ironman Hawaii | 11:10:21 | 01:49:30 |
| Ironman Hamburg | 11:17:05 | 01:31:08 |
| Ironman Mar del Plata | 11:29:34 | 01:39:44 |
| Ironman Tallinn | 11:32:44 | 01:36:06 |
| Ironman Austria-Kärnten | 11:33:25 | 01:31:09 |
| Ironman Copenhagen | 11:35:58 | 01:26:59 |
| Ironman Argentina | 11:36:17 | 01:39:34 |
| Ironman Vitoria-Gasteiz | 11:36:17 | 01:26:42 |
| Challenge Roth | 11:36:27 | 01:27:09 |
| Ironman Brazil | 11:37:50 | 01:34:30 |
| Ironman Switzerland Thun | 11:38:54 | 01:37:04 |
| Ironman Mallorca | 11:40:02 | 01:33:54 |
| Ironman Barcelona | 11:41:12 | 01:31:58 |
| Ironman Italy Emilia-Romagna | 11:43:36 | 01:34:27 |
| Ironman Frankfurt | 11:49:46 | 01:28:28 |
| Ironman Finland | 11:53:36 | 01:30:45 |
| Ironman Maastricht-Limburg | 11:55:41 | 01:31:29 |
| Ironman Kalmar | 11:57:17 | 01:32:24 |
| Ironman Austria | 11:59:53 | 01:40:25 |
| Ironman Gdynia | 12:05:06 | 01:33:36 |
| Ironman Portugal | 12:05:54 | 01:43:15 |
| Cascais | 12:07:31 | 01:38:22 |
| Ironman Cairns | 12:10:22 | 01:44:06 |
| Ironman WC Nice | 12:11:03 | 01:41:09 |
| Ironman Switzerland | 12:11:05 | 01:37:39 |
| Ironman France | 12:13:59 | 01:35:53 |
| Ironman Haugesund | 12:14:58 | 01:33:19 |
| Ironman Pays d'Aix-en-Provence | 12:15:16 | 01:36:26 |
| Ironman Western Australia | 12:17:00 | 01:50:40 |
| Ironman Vichy | 12:19:13 | 01:39:47 |
| Ironman Kazakhstan | 12:19:37 | 01:55:51 |
| Ironman Fortaleza | 12:19:57 | 01:44:08 |
| Ironman South Africa | 12:23:49 | 01:45:25 |
| Ironman Australia | 12:26:37 | 01:43:15 |
| Ironman Israel | 12:32:07 | 01:48:48 |
| Ironman WC Hawaii | 12:35:28 | 01:36:40 |
| Ironman New Zealand | 12:48:56 | 01:52:38 |
| Ironman Cozumel | 12:54:44 | 01:52:08 |
| Ironman Weymouth | 13:01:08 | 01:34:00 |
| Ironman Louisville | 13:01:20 | 01:38:40 |
| Ironman Ireland | 13:02:59 | 01:44:55 |
| Ironman Mont-Tremblant | 13:06:25 | 01:42:56 |
| Ironman Lanzarote | 13:07:44 | 01:41:04 |
| Ironman Muskoka | 13:08:40 | 01:44:39 |
| Ironman Texas | 13:09:19 | 02:01:16 |
| Ironman Los Cabos | 13:16:15 | 01:48:51 |
| Ironman Santa Rosa | 13:21:12 | 01:50:19 |
| Ironman Maryland | 13:22:59 | 01:49:12 |
| Ironman Indiana | 13:25:08 | 01:43:26 |
| Ironman Vineman | 13:25:45 | 01:43:42 |
| Ironman Florida | 13:29:30 | 01:48:57 |
| Ironman Arizona | 13:30:11 | 01:50:26 |
| Ironman WC St. George | 13:31:26 | 01:58:35 |
| Ironman Boulder | 13:35:56 | 01:50:02 |
| Ironman UK | 13:36:08 | 01:38:14 |
| Ironman Gurye | 13:36:28 | 01:42:52 |
| Ironman Wales | 13:37:32 | 01:34:42 |
| Ironman Canada | 13:38:05 | 01:44:50 |
| Ironman Tulsa | 13:39:18 | 01:54:51 |
| Ironman Chattanooga | 13:41:12 | 01:36:35 |
| Ironman Wisconsin | 13:43:53 | 01:42:51 |
| Ironman Lake Placid | 13:44:18 | 01:43:30 |
| Ironman Penticton | 13:44:39 | 01:46:40 |
| Ironman Lake Tahoe | 13:48:15 | 01:47:16 |
| Ironman Taiwan | 13:48:20 | 01:55:23 |
| Ironman Coeur d'Alene | 13:52:04 | 01:53:10 |
| Ironman Coeur d´Alene | 13:56:21 | 01:43:36 |
| Ironman Des Moines | 13:58:16 | 02:00:49 |
| Ironman California | 13:59:29 | 01:51:23 |
| Ironman Alaska | 14:02:33 | 01:38:32 |
| Ironman Malaysia | 14:07:37 | 01:55:03 |
| Ironman Waco | 14:12:55 | 01:46:59 |
| Ironman Subic Bay Philippines | 14:44:48 | 01:39:01 |
| Ironman Philippines | 14:57:37 | 01:37:08 |
| Race | Average Swim | Average Bike | Average Run |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ironman Hamburg | 01:13:02 | 05:35:56 | 04:14:30 |
| Ironman Hawaii | 01:10:40 | 05:38:12 | 04:09:53 |
| Ironman Copenhagen | 01:15:11 | 05:39:20 | 04:24:38 |
| Ironman Tallinn | 01:19:43 | 05:39:56 | 04:17:52 |
| Ironman Barcelona | 01:14:32 | 05:40:32 | 04:31:38 |
| Ironman Italy Emilia-Romagna | 01:13:03 | 05:44:46 | 04:25:26 |
| Ironman Vitoria-Gasteiz | 01:13:16 | 05:44:56 | 04:22:04 |
| Challenge Roth | 01:15:06 | 05:45:47 | 04:23:58 |
| Ironman Kalmar | 01:19:38 | 05:48:54 | 04:33:08 |
| Ironman Brazil | 01:10:47 | 05:50:16 | 04:18:03 |
| Ironman Frankfurt | 01:14:50 | 05:50:34 | 04:27:31 |
| Ironman Austria-Kärnten | 01:12:31 | 05:51:42 | 04:12:26 |
| Ironman Kazakhstan | 01:28:09 | 05:55:11 | 04:38:14 |
| Ironman Mallorca | 01:10:24 | 05:55:54 | 04:16:42 |
| Ironman Western Australia | 01:15:48 | 05:56:11 | 04:44:17 |
| Ironman Finland | 01:18:43 | 05:56:13 | 04:25:23 |
| Ironman Austria | 01:16:15 | 05:57:45 | 04:28:42 |
| Ironman Switzerland Thun | 00:56:51 | 05:58:16 | 04:28:50 |
| Ironman Maastricht-Limburg | 01:14:31 | 06:01:22 | 04:22:57 |
| Ironman Cairns | 01:13:25 | 06:02:13 | 04:35:13 |
| Ironman Mar del Plata | 01:00:28 | 06:02:24 | 04:14:05 |
| Ironman Argentina | 01:05:05 | 06:03:21 | 04:13:05 |
| Ironman Vichy | 01:20:17 | 06:03:32 | 04:33:20 |
| Ironman Switzerland | 01:17:24 | 06:03:57 | 04:33:20 |
| Ironman Texas | 01:24:52 | 06:04:07 | 05:15:05 |
| Ironman Fortaleza | 01:16:57 | 06:07:30 | 04:39:07 |
| Ironman Portugal | 01:17:23 | 06:10:36 | 04:15:30 |
| Cascais | 01:14:06 | 06:10:49 | 04:19:55 |
| Ironman Gdynia | 01:19:01 | 06:12:06 | 04:17:00 |
| Ironman Maryland | 01:20:25 | 06:14:54 | 05:22:38 |
| Ironman Florida | 01:25:52 | 06:15:01 | 05:20:27 |
| Ironman Israel | 01:27:07 | 06:15:23 | 04:23:37 |
| Ironman WC Hawaii | 01:19:09 | 06:15:36 | 04:43:08 |
| Ironman Cozumel | 01:07:54 | 06:16:30 | 05:07:14 |
| Ironman Australia | 01:10:21 | 06:17:53 | 04:41:19 |
| Ironman Boulder | 01:21:29 | 06:18:06 | 05:32:54 |
| Ironman South Africa | 01:07:39 | 06:19:46 | 04:44:33 |
| Ironman Indiana | 01:24:09 | 06:19:51 | 05:12:39 |
| Ironman Haugesund | 01:14:35 | 06:20:51 | 04:20:08 |
| Ironman Pays d'Aix-en-Provence | 01:12:42 | 06:21:26 | 04:19:45 |
| Ironman New Zealand | 01:15:12 | 06:22:01 | 04:52:03 |
| Ironman Arizona | 01:25:05 | 06:24:54 | 05:15:14 |
| Ironman France | 01:12:52 | 06:26:32 | 04:13:49 |
| Ironman Des Moines | 01:16:22 | 06:27:20 | 05:44:04 |
| Ironman Mont-Tremblant | 01:19:43 | 06:29:29 | 04:56:07 |
| Ironman Santa Rosa | 01:22:42 | 06:29:32 | 05:00:51 |
| Ironman WC Nice | 01:12:45 | 06:30:46 | 04:10:41 |
| Ironman Muskoka | 01:15:48 | 06:32:36 | 04:59:19 |
| Ironman Louisville | 01:10:23 | 06:32:40 | 04:58:53 |
| Ironman Vineman | 01:16:05 | 06:33:17 | 05:15:59 |
| Ironman Gurye | 01:26:23 | 06:33:37 | 05:11:21 |
| Ironman Los Cabos | 01:15:31 | 06:38:33 | 04:59:38 |
| Ironman Chattanooga | 01:04:08 | 06:38:43 | 05:33:27 |
| Ironman WC St. George | 01:16:12 | 06:40:09 | 05:11:32 |
| Ironman Lake Tahoe | 01:13:43 | 06:40:28 | 05:25:36 |
| Ironman Tulsa | 01:25:48 | 06:41:21 | 05:09:09 |
| Ironman Waco | 01:26:10 | 06:43:10 | 05:36:08 |
| Ironman Weymouth | 01:16:58 | 06:44:40 | 04:42:52 |
| Ironman Taiwan | 01:20:51 | 06:45:27 | 05:31:24 |
| Ironman Malaysia | 01:26:05 | 06:46:05 | 05:32:26 |
| Ironman Ireland | 01:09:35 | 06:47:29 | 04:51:41 |
| Ironman Coeur d'Alene | 01:18:50 | 06:48:46 | 05:22:16 |
| Ironman Wisconsin | 01:22:33 | 06:48:53 | 05:06:08 |
| Ironman Canada | 01:17:05 | 06:49:31 | 05:11:37 |
| Ironman Coeur d´Alene | 01:20:04 | 06:50:12 | 05:23:30 |
| Ironman Lake Placid | 01:18:37 | 06:51:28 | 05:09:44 |
| Ironman Philippines | 01:31:04 | 06:51:43 | 06:06:17 |
| Ironman Penticton | 01:19:12 | 06:52:23 | 05:12:46 |
| Ironman California | 00:59:22 | 06:56:39 | 05:24:32 |
| Ironman Subic Bay Philippines | 01:31:23 | 07:00:46 | 05:50:23 |
| Ironman Lanzarote | 01:15:26 | 07:01:49 | 04:30:13 |
| Ironman UK | 01:20:58 | 07:04:26 | 04:49:00 |
| Ironman Wales | 01:15:53 | 07:07:58 | 04:49:48 |
| Ironman Alaska | 00:42:03 | 07:17:32 | 05:20:13 |
Identifying the Best Ironman Courses for Personal Records
A question that might not be as common but is undoubtedly crucial for many athletes is, "Which Ironman course should I choose to set a personal best?" Addressing this query requires a more nuanced approach than merely averaging finish times across races. The methodology employed involves several key steps:
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Identification of Repeat Participants: The first step is to identify athletes who have competed in multiple events throughout the data collection period. This identification is done uniquely through a combination of the athlete's Name, Country, and "Dynamic Age Group". The concept of a Dynamic Age Group allows for the fact that an athlete may move between age categories over the eight-year period under review.
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Analysis of Individual Best Times: Next, we determine the minimum race time recorded for each athlete, representing their personal best.
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Event-Specific Personal Bests: We then calculate the number of athletes who achieved their all-time personal best at each specific event.
Limitations to Consider: There are certain factors that might skew the results. For instance, an athlete who primarily competes in challenging courses but later participates in a notably easier one may distort the data. Similarly, significant improvements in an athlete's fitness level over time could introduce bias. However, by analyzing over a million finish times, we leverage the law of large numbers, hoping to mitigate these biases and provide a well-rounded view of the likelihood of setting a personal best across different courses.
The plot below displays the Personal Best Estimate on the vertical axis (Y) and Finish Time in Hours on the horizontal axis (X). The size of each point indicates the number of participants from whom these data were derived. Please note: To be included in this visualization and the subsequent table, participants must have completed at least two Full distance races between 2015 and 2024.
Personal Best Performance by Race for Athletes with 2+ Finishes
Personal Best Performance by Race for Athletes with 5+ Finishes
| Race | Personal Best Estimate |
|---|---|
| Ironman Hamburg | 65.36% |
| Ironman Barcelona | 62.04% |
| Ironman Western Australia | 55.83% |
| Ironman Vitoria-Gasteiz | 55.23% |
| Ironman Louisville | 54.19% |
| Ironman Maryland | 53.38% |
| Ironman Copenhagen | 53.35% |
| Ironman Italy Emilia-Romagna | 49.86% |
| Ironman Brazil | 47.56% |
| Ironman Texas | 46.85% |
| Ironman Kalmar | 46.43% |
| Challenge Roth | 46.31% |
| Ironman Tallinn | 45.11% |
| Ironman South Africa | 44.02% |
| Ironman Arizona | 43.26% |
| Ironman Cozumel | 41.50% |
| Ironman Mallorca | 40.82% |
| Ironman Australia | 40.47% |
| Ironman Chattanooga | 39.36% |
| Ironman Cairns | 38.41% |
| Ironman Mont-Tremblant | 38.34% |
| Ironman Florida | 38.22% |
| Ironman Austria | 38.01% |
| Ironman New Zealand | 37.97% |
| Ironman France | 37.07% |
| Ironman Frankfurt | 35.58% |
| Ironman Maastricht-Limburg | 34.20% |
| Ironman Santa Rosa | 33.77% |
| Ironman UK | 33.54% |
| Ironman Tulsa | 33.26% |
| Ironman Vichy | 32.86% |
| Ironman Malaysia | 32.70% |
| Ironman Wisconsin | 29.68% |
| Ironman Lake Placid | 26.54% |
| Ironman Wales | 26.29% |
| Ironman Switzerland | 26.00% |
| Ironman WC Hawaii | 24.13% |
| Ironman Coeur d'Alene | 22.89% |
| Ironman Boulder | 21.46% |
| Ironman Canada | 20.90% |
| Ironman Hawaii | 12.59% |
| Ironman Lanzarote | 12.09% |
| Ironman WC Nice | 6.75% |
| Ironman WC St. George | 4.18% |
Targeting Time Goals: Selecting the Ideal Course
Another pivotal question among triathletes is how to choose an Ironman course that aligns with specific time goals, such as breaking the 10-hour mark (I had this goal myself for a long time!!). To address this, we've analyzed the likelihood of finishing under targeted times across various courses.
This analysis unequivocally shows that certain courses offer a higher probability of meeting these ambitious goals, due to factors like course topography, weather conditions, and overall race dynamics. By meticulously calculating the chances of finishing under a set time for each race, we've identified clear frontrunners that could serve as strategic choices for athletes aiming to achieve their time-specific objectives.
| Race | Under 9 Hours | Under 10 Hours | Under 11 Hours | Under 12 Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Challenge Roth | 1.35% | 11.12% | 33.74% | 60.36% |
| Ironman Hamburg | 1.33% | 14.10% | 37.71% | 62.85% |
| Ironman France | 1.25% | 7.78% | 23.15% | 47.42% |
| Ironman Tallinn | 1.19% | 13.89% | 36.84% | 61.10% |
| Ironman Texas | 1.06% | 7.19% | 16.96% | 31.50% |
| Ironman Copenhagen | 1.01% | 10.80% | 33.71% | 60.56% |
| Ironman Italy Emilia-Romagna | 1.01% | 10.85% | 32.33% | 56.85% |
| Ironman Vitoria-Gasteiz | 1.00% | 11.72% | 34.77% | 59.66% |
| Ironman Barcelona | 0.94% | 11.10% | 33.58% | 58.78% |
| Ironman Mallorca | 0.88% | 12.21% | 33.47% | 58.32% |
| Ironman Hawaii | 0.85% | 17.89% | 45.80% | 66.80% |
| Ironman Western Australia | 0.69% | 8.73% | 24.90% | 44.46% |
| Ironman Brazil | 0.67% | 11.75% | 34.84% | 60.08% |
| Ironman Kalmar | 0.51% | 8.13% | 26.04% | 51.07% |
| Ironman Frankfurt | 0.48% | 9.62% | 30.19% | 54.45% |
| Ironman Vichy | 0.43% | 7.30% | 22.12% | 42.94% |
| Ironman Indiana | 0.41% | 3.08% | 10.71% | 24.01% |
| Ironman WC St. George | 0.31% | 3.68% | 12.73% | 27.07% |
| Ironman Austria | 0.30% | 7.79% | 26.80% | 50.03% |
| Ironman Cozumel | 0.28% | 4.28% | 13.92% | 29.51% |
| Ironman New Zealand | 0.28% | 4.42% | 16.67% | 34.38% |
| Ironman Cairns | 0.28% | 7.89% | 26.05% | 46.99% |
| Ironman Arizona | 0.26% | 3.14% | 10.64% | 24.06% |
| Ironman Florida | 0.22% | 3.00% | 10.43% | 23.33% |
| Ironman Finland | 0.18% | 8.95% | 26.94% | 52.31% |
| Ironman Santa Rosa | 0.17% | 3.48% | 11.40% | 25.28% |
| Ironman South Africa | 0.16% | 5.30% | 17.65% | 36.32% |
| Ironman Coeur d'Alene | 0.16% | 2.03% | 8.99% | 19.81% |
| Ironman Australia | 0.16% | 5.24% | 19.66% | 40.39% |
| Ironman Maryland | 0.14% | 3.01% | 10.63% | 23.34% |
| Ironman UK | 0.14% | 1.68% | 7.31% | 19.21% |
| Ironman Boulder | 0.11% | 2.71% | 9.52% | 21.77% |
| Ironman Switzerland | 0.11% | 6.29% | 22.41% | 46.09% |
| Ironman Waco | 0.10% | 1.46% | 4.88% | 15.14% |
| Ironman Tulsa | 0.09% | 2.89% | 10.43% | 23.24% |
| Ironman Maastricht-Limburg | 0.09% | 6.53% | 26.23% | 51.84% |
| Ironman Lanzarote | 0.07% | 1.68% | 9.79% | 25.97% |
| Ironman Penticton | 0.07% | 1.74% | 6.73% | 18.83% |
| Ironman Louisville | 0.06% | 2.65% | 10.90% | 26.54% |
| Ironman WC Nice | 0.05% | 4.23% | 20.88% | 46.18% |
| Ironman Mont-Tremblant | 0.04% | 2.16% | 10.43% | 27.19% |
| Ironman Malaysia | 0.03% | 2.06% | 9.52% | 19.81% |
| Ironman Chattanooga | 0.01% | 1.09% | 6.04% | 17.53% |
| Ironman Lake Placid | 0.01% | 1.06% | 5.97% | 17.58% |
| Ironman Wisconsin | 0.01% | 1.11% | 6.20% | 17.35% |
| Ironman Canada | 0.00% | 1.81% | 7.85% | 20.13% |
| Ironman Gurye | 0.00% | 1.40% | 6.86% | 18.43% |
| Ironman Ireland | 0.00% | 0.87% | 6.02% | 18.83% |
| Ironman Los Cabos | 0.00% | 2.57% | 11.85% | 28.53% |
| Ironman Muskoka | 0.00% | 2.84% | 11.72% | 26.84% |
| Ironman Wales | 0.00% | 0.36% | 5.43% | 16.97% |
Conclusion:
This analysis, spanning over a million Ironman finish times, offers invaluable insights into selecting the right course for setting personal bests. While it highlights courses that might enhance performance due to their characteristics, achieving a personal best transcends course selection—it's about matching your strengths and preparation to the race's demands. Remember, data guides us towards informed decisions, but the essence of personal achievement lies in dedication, strategy, and the sheer will to surpass oneself. Choose your races wisely, focusing on where your abilities can shine brightest, and let your hard work and passion dictate the journey to your personal best.